Today's Insight
Missile Defense: Blocking
Threats or Blocking Diplomacy? | Will Edwards, The Cipher
Brief
North Korea has become the first national security test of Trump’s
presidency. The overall threat posed by North Korea has prompted the U.S.
to deploy missile defense systems, including the Terminal High Altitude
Area Defense (THAAD) system in Asia.
Expert Commentary
Putting Missile Defense on
Pause | Philip
E. Coyle, Senior Science Fellow, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
Nations are understandably sensitive to adversary military bases close to
their borders. Also Russia and China worry that U.S. missile defense
systems near their borders will nullify their strategic nuclear
deterrent. If the tables were turned, the United States would feel the
same way.
South Korea's Missile
Defense: Balancing Between the U.S. & China | Tong Zhao, Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace
Given its potential capability of neutralizing long-range strategic
missiles, which are the main delivery vehicle for nuclear weapons,
strategic missile defense becomes an increasing concern for some nuclear
weapon states that worry their nuclear deterrent could be undermined.
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Today's Column: Fine Print
DHS Secretary Kelly's
Border Remedies Differ from Trump | Walter Pincus, The Cipher Brief
President Trump has championed his wall as one way to stop illegal
immigrants and drugs from coming into the U.S. He has also suggested
taking steps to tax trade with Mexico to pay for the wall, thus
negatively affecting that country’s economy. Kelly, instead, talked of
the U.S. helping the economies of Mexico and Central American countries,
saying, “If the countries to our south are better off economically and
socially, then the people will rightly stay home with their
families."
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15 Minutes
This week,The
Cipher Brief’s Executive Producer and Reporter Leone
Lakhani speaks to Chris Taylor, who leads a course at Georgetown
University called “Hacking for Defense.” Despite the name, the course
isn’t just about cyber threats; it uses unique new methodology to find
solutions to pressing challenges in national security, brought directly
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Listen to 15 Minutes
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Don't Miss On The Cipher Brief
North Korea Tests
Missile—and Trump | Mackenzie
Weinger, TCB
The Cipher Brief’s
Mackenzie Weinger spoke separately with former Ambassadors Joseph DeTrani
and Christopher Hill to get their respective views on this latest
provocation, how Trump has handled the security challenge so far, and
what the U.S. should be watching for concerning Pyongyang.
Homeland Season 6: "A
Flash of Light" | Michael
Sulick, Former Director, CIA National Clandestine Service
"This season’s parallel plots begin to converge in episode four.
Carrie’s houseguest, Peter Quinn, still recovering from his near-death
experience, hasn’t been involved in the political machinations between
the President-elect and the CIA or in the FBI terrorism case against
young Sekou Bah. In this episode, he is subtly woven into the Sekou Bah
storyline."
A History of What
Works with Iran | Michael
Morell, Former Acting Director, CIA
The Trump Administration is correct that the U.S. should focus on the
significant threat posed by Iran’s misbehavior in the Middle East.
Luckily, history provides a guide on how we can change that behavior.
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The Cipher Take:
Flynn was not without
controversy – he is known for his aggressive stance toward “radical Islamic
extremism” and his potential ties to the Russian government were in
question even during the campaign. The position of National Security
Advisor requires deep trust by the President; he or she must not
only maintain close communications with and access to him in the White
House, but also must make sure the implementation of the President's
policy runs smoothly. As General Michael Hayden told The
Cipher Brief in December, the National Security Advisor must play the
role “of the honest broker – the process guy – making sure that the
President and the Vice President see issues early enough that it matters,
see them in the right sequence so they can approach them logically, and
have the benefit of seeing the broad range of views that the others in
the government might tee up, all so that the President and the Vice
President can make the best decisions possible.” This is additionally
critical for the Trump administration as national security is an area
where the President and his closest advisors supposedly have very little
to no experience. Furthermore, the Administration has already instituted
multiple controversial policies related to national security that would
require close management even without a disruption to the national
security leadership.
Syrian Rebels May Not
Attend Kazakhstan Talks
On Monday, senior Syrian opposition officials suggested
that they may not attend ceasefire talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, scheduled
for February 15-16. These talks – sponsored by Russia and Turkey – are
being held in tandem to UN-sponsored peace talks scheduled to take place
in Geneva on February 20. The Astana meeting is meant to shore up the
nationwide ceasefire, which took effect in December of last year, and
follows up on a previous meeting between Syrian rebel and government
delegations last month. However, according to senior rebel official
Mohammad al Aboud, there have been “violations in the ceasefire, and the
Russians did not live up to their promises to halt these violations.”
Rebel officials have also complained of Damascus’ failure to complete
prisoner swaps.
The Cipher Take:
There is little doubt
that violations have occurred frequently on both sides since the
ceasefire’s implementation
last December. Similarly, although an exchange of female prisoners was
successfully negotiated in northwestern Hama last week, few other
prisoner swaps have been finalized. The revelatory report by Amnesty
International that up to 13,000 prisoners have been systematically
executed in the Syrian government’s Saydnaya prison has also added fuel
to the fire. However, this rebel announcement is, at least in part,
diplomatic theater. On Sunday, rebel groups confirmed their delegates to
Geneva for broader peace talks on February 20 and, as those talks
approach, opposition representatives will look to position themselves for
negotiating advantage. Establishing their protest against consistent
Syrian government ceasefire violations seems a good place to start.
Trump and Abe Respond to
NK Missile Test During Dinner
The announcement of North Korea’s latest missile test on
Sunday reached President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe while the two were having dinner at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.
Photographs taken by resort guests showed the two leaders conversing with
aides and reading documents at their dinner table by light of cell
phones. The two gave a statement where Abe called the act “intolerable”
and Trump reaffirmed the United States’ “100 percent” commitment to its
ally. The two leaders then finished dinner before retiring for the
evening.
The Cipher Take:
There are several key
takeaways from both the test and the presidential response. This missile
test is North Korea’s first since Trump became president and, given Abe’s
state visit to the United States, may have been meant to send a message
to Japan. From a technical standpoint, the test is significant because it
was a successful demonstration from an as yet unseen missile type, the
Bukkuksong-2, a road mobile, solid-fueled rocket modified from North
Korea’s submarine-launched missile. The combination of solid fuel—no
refueling time— and mobility makes this missile type harder to detect
before launch. North Korea has displayed a growing aptitude for complex
missile technologies, and the expected sanctions from the UN are unlikely
to deter its progress. Experts believe that Pyongyang intended for this
to be a low intensity provocation, citing that it could have tested a
larger missile type or flown the missile closer to Japan to make a bigger
metaphorical splash.
As for the two
leaders’ reaction to the news of the missile launch, it turned into
something of a spectacle given the audience of diners, many of whom
tweeted photos and descriptions of the impromptu security briefing. Cyber
security experts have raised questions as to whether all the phones used
to provide light were properly secured from hacks, as their cameras could
have captured sensitive information in the briefing. While the briefing
itself was somewhat chaotic, the president’s statement gave a measured
response with a firm reassurance to Japan, which has been the standard
U.S. response to previous missile tests. With upcoming joint military
drills between the U.S. and South Korea, Trump may soon get even more
practice responding to North Korean provocations.
U.S. Navy Planning More
FONOPS in South China Sea
According to several Navy officials at Pacific Command,
the U.S. Navy is drawing up plans to conduct more Freedom of Navigation
Operations (FONOPS) in the South China Sea. This would put U.S. Navy
ships on paths close to the artificial islands militarized by China in
the Spratly and/or the Paracel island chains in order to establish a
persistent U.S. naval presence in the South China Sea.
The Cipher Take:
This plan could be
part of a new, assertive U.S. approach that the Secretary of Defense
reportedly shared with Japanese policymakers in a behind-closed-doors
meeting during his recent visit. The Trump administration has, to this
point, been cagey on details for its South China Sea policy – as well as
its broader Asia policy, but it appears to be heading in the right
direction. FONOPS are a strong - though not sufficient on their own -
element of a larger strategy
in the region, according to experts. FONOPS are a global program intended
to display the United States’ support of freedom of navigation as defined
by international law, but not necessarily to deter the misconduct of
another country, such as China. The U.S. is unlikely to shift China off
the islands it already occupies, and to deter Beijing from further island
building, all while avoiding regional conflict, will require open
communication alongside a suite of well-defined policies with clear
goals.
Pakistan Explosion Kills
14
A suicide bomb during a protest in Lahore, Pakistan,
killed at least 14 people and injured 80 more in an attack claimed by
Jamat-ul-Ahrar, a splinter group of the Pakistani Taliban known as
Tehreek-i Taliban (TTP). Jamaat-ur-Ahrar was also responsible for a
bombing at a park in Lahore last Easter, killing more than 70 people.
The Cipher Take:
The TTP is a separate
and distinct organization from the Afghan Taliban. The TTP is responsible
for conducting several large-scale attacks in Pakistan, such as the 2014
massacre at a military school in Peshawar, which killed more than 140
people, including 132 schoolchildren. In contrast to the Afghan Taliban,
the TTP aims to overthrow the Pakistani government and has become a
primary target of the Pakistani military.
Germany Voices Support
for Greece in Eurozone
On Monday, German Foreign Ministry spokesman Martin
Schaefer told reporters that Germany “wants to keep the Eurozone whole,
including Greece, and will support everything that helps Greece.” This
statement comes in response to the unfolding crisis over Greece’s latest
bailout accord, and follows a controversial interview given by German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble last Wednesday, which seemed to
suggest that Berlin would be willing to see Greece leave the Eurozone if
it couldn’t meet reform targets. Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund
(IMF) Chief Christine Lagarde reiterated her organization’s opposition to
any bailout agreement which does not provide either significant debt
relief – Greek public debt stands at nearly 180 percent of GDP – or
guarantee that deep budget reforms will bring Greek debt to sustainable
levels.
The Cipher Take:
This latest Greek
crisis stems from a recent IMF report which claims that Greek debt could
reach “explosive proportions” of above 200 percent of GDP or more without
real debt relief from Eurozone countries. The IMF has long called for
Eurozone countries to provide significant debt relief to Greece with
either large infusions of cash or by extending the maturities on Greek
loans. They say that the current severity of austerity policies – deep
reforms and budget cuts – levied on Greece by EU creditors is
unsustainable, and will continue to produce ballooning debt in the
future. However, key EU economies like Germany have consistently argued
against significant debt relief, claiming that reforms and Greek budget
cuts alone should do the job. Numbers released by the European Commission
on Monday appear to bear that belief out, forecasting that Greek debt is
set to fall from roughly 180 percent of GDP today to 170 percent by 2018.
Fortunately for the Greeks, Athens won’t face its next major interest
payments until July, by which time most experts expect this standoff to
be resolved. Still, the IMF has a point. This is Greece’s third major
bailout since 2010, and the path to debt sustainability with reforms
alone is murky at best. If the EU wants to prevent such crises from
arising nearly every year, they should consider offering Athens the
long-term debt relief it needs.
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Upcoming Cipher Brief Events
National Interests vs.
International Provocations: China Pushes the Line in East Asia | Tuesday, February 28
Our February Georgetown Salon Series event will focus on the global
implications of China's island-building campaign in the South China Sea.
Leading the discussion with be Admiral Jon Greenert, former Chief of
Naval Operations for the U.S. Navy; Timothy Heath, Senior International
Defense Research Analyst at RAND Corporation; and Greg Poling,
Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. The
discussion will be moderated by The Cipher Brief's CEO & Publisher,
Suzanne Kelly.
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