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The United States is preparing to
celebrate Independence Day as two key counterterrorism initiates take
effect. The Department of Homeland Security unveiled new aviation
security measures for all international commercial flights bound for the
United States, and, according to Secretary of Homeland Security John
Kelly, “this is just the starting point.” Meanwhile, on Thursday evening,
key parts of the Trump Administration’s travel ban went into effect after
a Supreme Court decision to allow certain elements of the policy ahead of
full arguments to be made before the Court in the fall. What did our
experts have to say about the travel ban’s latest version? Find out here. For more on the increased aviation
security measures, click here.
On Sunday morning, White House Homeland Security and
Counterterrorism Adviser Thomas Bossert told Martha Raddatz that the
terrorist threat to the U.S. and its partners around the world is
increasing. “We spend an inordinate amount of time and resources as the
United States, but also as our partners, trying to not only defeat ISIS
and their control of the physical caliphate, but their virtual space that
they own, their Internet space," he said on ABC's This Week.
"They're proselytizing. It's troubling and…President Trump has taken
a number of steps, controversial and otherwise, to protect Americans.”
As we head into the Fourth of July holiday, we bring you
some of our most insightful pieces from the past few months, beginning
with an analysis of ISIS’ future. Despite the impending fall of
Mosul and the tightening noose around Raqqa, our experts tell us that the
war against ISIS has only just begun. Meanwhile, Cipher Brief Experts
Admiral Sandy Winnefeld, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff and Michael Morell, former Acting Director of the CIA, tell us about the importance of realism in
dealing with North Korea – and how the U.S. needs to fundamentally change
its objectives.
We’ll continue to bring you our experts’ insight and
analysis each day. From all of us at The Cipher Brief, we wish you a
happy and safe Fourth of July.
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Best Of: The War Against ISIS Has Just Begun
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As
the Islamic State is squeezed out of its strongholds in Mosul and Raqqa
and witnesses a steady decline in the influx of foreign fighters, the
question becomes: what is next for ISIS? Will it continue to retain
control of several urban centers in the region—or will it disband and
devote its complete attention to external operations and attacking Europe
and the West? The Cipher Brief examines ISIS' current level of strength
and influence and what to expect from the ISIS threat moving
forward. Read now
Best Of: Railguns: The Fast, the Furious — and the Future?
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The
concept of an electromagnetic railgun has been around for nearly a
century. By pulsing electricity through two rails, scientists theorized a
weapon could launch objects at speeds far beyond the capability of
conventional artillery - up to Mach 7 - to strike targets over 100 miles
away. Today, that idea is very near to reality. Electromagnetic railgun
systems for the Navy and the Army are now reaching the final stages of
development, and could become operational for roles ranging from missile
defense to naval surface warfare within the next few years. The Cipher
Brief takes a look at this revolutionary technology, and what it may mean
for the future of warfare.
- Tom Boucher Railgun
Program Manager, Office of Naval Research
- Scott
Forney President, General
Atomics Electromagnetic Systems
Washington and Seoul, Trump and Moon
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In a
sign of the importance of the U.S.-South Korea relationship, South Korean
President Moon Jae-in made his first international trip as president to
the United States to meet with President Donald Trump. The visit occurred
at a time when the Trump Administration has made ending North Korea's
nuclear weapons and missile provocations a top priority. Though Seoul and
Washington are united in this objective, they do not see eye-to-eye on
other issues. Citing the U.S. trade deficit to South Korea, the Trump Administration
is pushing for a revamped trade deal. The Cipher Brief examines the
outcome of the summit and what it means for one of the United States'
most important bilateral relationships as well as the threat emanating
from North Korea.
- Sung-Yoon Lee
Professor of Korean Studies,
Fletcher School, Tufts University
- James
Kim Director, Asan Institute
for Policy Studies
With Friends Like These: U.S.-Pakistani Relations
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For
years, U.S.-Pakistani relations have danced on a blade of mistrust, with
the United States claiming Pakistan supports militant groups such as the
Taliban—and Pakistan claiming it does not. Despite this, Pakistan's
support in counterterrorism operations remains critical to U.S. efforts
to stabilize Afghanistan. The Cipher Brief examines the current state of
U.S.-Pakistani relations, as well as Pakistan's mixed counterterrorism
record.
- Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry Ambassador of Pakistan to the United
States
- Dan Markey Director, Global Policy Program, Johns
Hopkins SAIS
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The Promise of Space-Based Missile Defense
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In
May, the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense system - or GMD -
successfully intercepted a mock intercontinental ballistic
missile in a critical test of the U.S. missile defense umbrella.
However, the failed test of the sea-based SM-3 interceptor on June 22
underlines that challenges remain in perfecting the U.S. missile
defense system. This system is largely ground- and sea-based, with
advanced interceptors radar installations spread across the globe. But
space-based sensors - and possibly even interceptors - could vastly
improve the efficacy of this system. The Cipher Brief takes a look at
space-based missile defense systems, and how optimizing space
architecture could revolutionize U.S. missile defense.
- Deborah Lee James Former Secretary of the U.S. Air Force
- Thomas Karako Senior Fellow, International Security
Program, CSIS
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Network Spotlight
The Cipher Brief
welcomes new Network member Leslie Ireland!
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 Leslie Ireland
Former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for
Intelligence and Analysis
Leslie Ireland
joined Treasury in 2010 after 25 years at CIA where she specialized in
Iran, the Middle East and WMD. She retired in November 2016 after more
than 31 years in the Intelligence Community.
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The Cipher Brief Podcasts
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This
week, The Cipher Brief celebrates Independence Day by looking back at
interviews with those who served this country in the Armed Forces. From
Robert 'Buzz' Patterson, a former air force pilot and military aide to
President Clinton, to Senator John McCain, a former naval pilot and POW,
to Jack Keane, a retired four-star general, these men have made important
sacrifices for and contributions to national security.
Listen to 15 Minutes: Former Members of the Armed Services
- or get it on iTunes
Don't Miss on The Cipher Brief
Israeli Lawmaker: Iran’s
Fingerprints Are Everywhere
Anat Berko, Member, Israeli Knesset
You see the fingerprints of Iran everywhere. You see them in Lebanon, in
Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen, in Libya, in South America. Therefore, it was a
good thing when President Trump said that Iran is the enemy of the U.S.,
the West, and most definitely Israel.
Rethinking U.S. Nuclear
Policy: Stable Energy vs. Security Risks
Debra Decker, Senior Advisor, Stimson
Center
President Donald Trump, speaking last Thursday at the Department of
Energy, called for several initiatives to propel “American energy
dominance,” and heading his list was the revival and expansion of the
U.S. nuclear energy sector. The details are yet to be revealed as he has
called for a complete review of U.S. nuclear energy policy. Such a review
is overdue.
Columnists This Week
Expert
View
Best Of: Realism and North
Korea
Admiral Sandy
Winnefeld Former
Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
Michael
Morell Former Acting Director, CIA
Agenda
Setter
Can the U.S. Navy Maintain an
"Around the World Presence"?
Ray Mabus Former Secretary of the U.S. Navy
State
Secrets
A Conversation with Nicholas
Rasmussen, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center
Suzanne Kelly
CEO & Publisher, The Cipher Brief
Expert
View
The Making of a Russian Spy
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen
Former Director of
Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Department of Energy
Strategic
View
Creating the (Soft) Power to
Transform Fragile States
Larry Sampler Former Special Assistant
to the Administrator, Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs, USAID
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The Cipher Brief is
hiring.
We're looking for a Senior News Editor who will be
instrumental in helping to build and execute our annual strategic plan
across our entire digital platform, as well as expanding our
editorial coverage of international security issues. Find out more
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STATE
OF DISARRAY? Something
to shout about. Politico reported Thursday that Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson is so frustrated with interference and leaking from White House
staffers that he blew his lid last week in a meeting in Chief of Staff
Reince Priebus’s office. Four people, familiar with the encounter, then
leaked the details. What is at the heart of the matter? The Washington
Post reported recently that Tillerson is insisting on appointing nominees
who have certain skills, while the White House wants them to have
demonstrated strong loyalty to the President. Apparently, the universe of
people who fit in both categories is somewhat limited. One demographic
which seems to be favored is sport team moguls. Last week the White House
announced the President’s intent to nominate Woodie Johnson, owner of the
New York Jets, to be Ambassador to the U.K. and Jamie McCourt former
owner of the LA Dodgers to be Ambassador to Belgium. Hey NFL fans: share
with us your recommendations for where controversial Washington Redskins
owner Dan Snyder might be sent.
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A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR
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