Today's Insight
Border Dispute: China Won't
Back Off, India Can't Back Down | Will Edwards, The Cipher
Brief
After six weeks of tension between China and India over a Chinese road
building project on contested territory, neither side is prepared to back
down. Known as the Doklam Plateau, this small area high up in the
Himalayas where Bhutan, India, and China share a vaguely defined border,
is now the center of a potential conflict with much larger geopolitical
consequences.
Expert Commentary
Signs of a Thaw in India,
China Border Dispute | Sameer
Lalwani, Deputy Director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center
"The Dolam standoff comes amidst decades of competitive buildups in
infrastructure and troops in response to frequent border incidents along
the India-China border. China has undertaken large-scale initiatives to
improve its military infrastructure and capabilities along its Western
border for decades. Over the last decade, India has also pursued a
broader military buildup of new infrastructure projects and forces over a
decade, including a new, 90,000-strong, mountain strike corps along its
northeast border."
India and China's Game of
Chicken at the "Chicken's Neck" | Michael Kugelman, Senior Associate for South Asia,
The Wilson Center
"This plateau is no ordinary plateau. It leads to a narrow swath of
real estate, known formally as the Siliguri Corridor and popularly as the
Chicken’s Neck, that links India’s northeastern states to the rest of
India. By staking a claim to it, China knows that it can make India feel
strategically vulnerable."
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Today's Column: Fine Print
Trump's Memory Failures |
Walter Pincus, The Cipher Brief
President Donald Trump’s penchant for making misleading or false
statements has been well documented. Former CIA Director John
Brennan last week offered a possible reason – one that should be a
concern with any Trump descriptions of his one-on-one meetings,
particularly when it comes to foreign leaders. Trump, according to
Brennan, at times apparently does not remember things accurately.
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Must-Read On The Cipher Brief
Afghanistan Needs a
Special Envoy | Daniel
Hoffman, Former Chief of Station, CIA
The U.S. has deployed special envoys since our independence. In modern
times, presidents have recognized that while ambassadors generally
oversee bilateral relations, an envoy can provide invaluable leadership
by effectively managing a crisis or regional portfolio by negotiating
with multiple parties, rather than just a representative of a single
government.
House Rejects Quick
Passage of Bill Requiring Report on Election Threats | Steve Hirsch, Senior National Security Editor, The Cipher
Brief
The House Monday failed to pass under expedited procedures legislation to
require the Trump Administration to produce a public report on foreign
threats to federal elections, as well as two other reports related to
Russian meddling in U.S. and Western elections.
The (Soft) Power to
Transform Fragile States | Larry
Sampler, Former Assistant to the Administrator for Afghanistan and
Pakistan Affairs, USAID
Governments and aid organizations have used soft power for decades to
stabilize countries on the brink of political, social, or economic
failure. One example of how soft power was instrumental in encouraging
warring parties to meet at the negotiating table is the peace treaty
between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia (FARC).
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15 Minutes
A U.S. ambassador to the European Union, Special Representative for
Afghanistan and Pakistan, envoy to Kosovo, Bosnia, Haiti, and Somalia:
James Dobbins has had years of experience representing U.S. interests
abroad. Along with his numerous positions, he was also lead negotiator
to the Bonn Agreement, which re-created the state of Afghanistan
following the U.S. invasion. In this week’s 15 Minutes podcast, The
Cipher Brief’s Fritz Lodge speaks with Ambassador Dobbins about his
experiences as a diplomat, what role the U.S. has abroad under the
Trump administration, and his new book, Foreign Service: Five Decades on the
Frontlines of American Policy.
Listen to 15 Minutes: Ambassador James Dobbins on America's Future
Abroad- or get it on iTunes
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The Cipher Take
Bombing in Pakistan Kills At
Least 25
A suicide bomber killed at least 25, including many policemen, and
wounded more than 52 others in the eastern Pakistani city of Lahore
Monday. The Pakistani Taliban (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack
in a message sent to the media by spokesman Muhammad Khurassani. Lahore
police operations chief Haider Ashraf told Reuters, “We suspect that [the
suicide bomber] came on a motorcycle and he rammed it into a police
checkpoint,” resulting in the ensuing carnage.
The Cipher Take:
Both the TTP and ISIS
continue to conduct large-scale attacks across Pakistan, leading the
Pakistani national army to crack down on both groups. The TTP aims to
overthrow the Pakistani government and is most notorious for its December
2014 attack on a military school in northwestern Pakistan that left
approximately 150 people dead, including many children, and more than 100
others wounded. ISIS has also carried out several attacks in Pakistan,
including a massacre at a Sufi shrine in February that killed 88 people.
Pakistani officials have reaffirmed Pakistan’s desire to root out both
groups, and say that the Pakistani army has launched a full-scale
offensive to eliminate their bases of operation.
Want more of
The Cipher Take? Read the rest of our analysis on today's headlines
at thecipherbrief.com.
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