President Donald Trump called negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a waste of time Sunday morning, directly contradicting Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s statement only one day prior.
“I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man…” Trump tweeted.
The U.S. Secretary of State had revealed Saturday that Washington is in direct communication with Pyongyang — and that his diplomatic priority was to defuse the danger of a nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula.
“We have lines of communication to Pyongyang. We’re not in a dark situation, a blackout,” Tillerson told reporters. “We have…three channels open to Pyongyang. We can talk to them, we do talk to them.”
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, the former special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea and the former director of the National Counterproliferation Center, told The Cipher Brief Sunday morning that “it's not surprising that the U.S. has "direct channels" to Pyongyang." In his view, "it would be surprising -- and tragic -- if we didn't.”
But the President then followed up his morning tweet with one more telling Tillerson to “...save your energy Rex, we'll do what has to be done!”
And indeed, in mid-September, Tillerson said, “if our diplomatic efforts fall through, our military option is the only one left.” What does DeTrani predict may happen should that occur? Read the Cipher Brief’s recent conversation with him here.
Why is Kim holding fast in the face of crippling sanctions and threats of destruction? Kim believes a nuclear deterrent is key to warding off any attacks against his position as leader of North Korea. As Congressman Will Hurd (R-TX) told The Cipher Brief in this week's 15 Minutes podcast, "Kim Jong-un is interested in one thing: staying in power. And he believes in order to do that he needs to do what his father and grandfather…could not do: attain nuclear weapons. We have to change that calculation."
Kim’s fear of regime change is, in fact, one of the most potent factors driving the crisis on the Korean peninsula. And indeed North Korea's behavior has, in some circles, created a sense of urgency for a change from the status quo. But the U.S. record of enacting regime change policies is checkered, with outcomes that can often undermine U.S. interests and security. In today's feature, The Cipher Brief breaks down the political and legal challenges of regime change and asks: what is it good for? Read More
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Why Can't Anyone Solve the "Day After" Problem?
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Once a regime falls, what comes next? As the United States and its allies have learned in the past 16 years, the "Day After" question has been an equal if not greater challenge than the toppling of a threatening leader. The Cipher Brief asks: how can the U.S. and its allies guide a peaceful transition of power into the hands of a new government? Can foreign-imposed democracies flourish with so many differing equities at play?
- Ryan Crocker Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan
- James Jeffrey Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey
The Arm of ISIS Reaches to the Philippines
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After more than three months of fierce fighting, ISIS militants still hold several parts of the Philippine city of Marawi, despite advances by the Armed Forces. The continued fighting, according to experts, demonstrates just how unprepared Philippine forces were for the oncoming extremist challenge. The Cipher Brief examines how the fight against ISIS is progressing and whether the Philippines can manage a long-term extremist threat.
- Michael Kugelman Senior Associate for South Asia, Wilson Center
- Sidney Jones Director, Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, Indonesia
Do South Korea and Japan Need a Nuclear Deterrent?
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On October 10th, as North Korea celebrates the foundation of the ruling Worker's Party, the United States and regional allies will brace themselves for the possibility of yet another provocative missile test. With multiple missile launches this year, and even the test of a hydrogen nuclear bomb, Pyongyang is pushing the limits of its nuclear aggression, sparking heated rhetoric between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. As the Korean crisis heats up, The Cipher Brief asks what it would take to provoke South Korea and Japan into developing their own nuclear deterrents, what that might do to regional security, and how the U.S. can work to reassure its key allies in the region.
- ADM (Ret.) Sandy Winnefeld Former Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
- Thomas Cynkin Former Vice President, Fujitsu
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Network Spotlight
The Cipher Brief introduces new Network member Ali Soufan! |
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Ali Soufan
Former Supervisory Special Agent, FBI
Ali Soufan investigated and supervised highly sensitive and complex international terrorism cases, including the East Africa Embassy Bombings, the attack on the USS Cole, and the events surrounding 9/11. Mr. Soufan also serves as a member of the Homeland Security Advisory Council.
View the rest of our Network members
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Don't Miss On The Cipher Brief
Trump Calls Tillerson’s Talks with North Korea a Waste of Time | Callie Wang and Kaitlin Lavinder, The Cipher Brief
President Donald Trump called negotiations with North Korea a waste of time on Sunday morning, potentially undermining Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s statement only one day prior.
Washington’s Chaos Will Follow its New Ambassador to Moscow | Mackenzie Weinger, The Cipher Brief
Jon Huntsman, confirmed by the Senate Thursday, faces a difficult balancing act between President Donald Trump’s push to improve relations with Russia and the Kremlin’s aggressive policies in Syria, Ukraine and continuing attempts to influence European elections.
The Cipher Brief Podcasts
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15 Minutes: Congressman Will Hurd
The Cipher Brief’s Bennett Seftel spent 15 Minutes with U.S. Congressman Will Hurd (R-TX), who talks takeaways from his years working as a CIA operations officer and offers his thoughts on current issues: why a border wall with Mexico is the most expensive and least effective way to achieve border security, the North Korea crisis, and the adversarial U.S.-Russia relationship.
Listen to 15 Minutes with Congressman Will Hurd: Discussing Security Threats & Border Control - or get it on iTunes
**Stay tuned for a new episode of Intelligence Matters with Michael Morell...coming Tuesday! |
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Columnists This Week
Cyber AdvisorCyber Command Is Growing Up. Now For the Real Issue.
Jason Healey Senior Research Scholar, Columbia UniversityFine PrintWalter Pincus Senior National Security Reporter and Columnist, The Cipher BriefExpert ViewTrump and Kim's Unending Gamble
Gordon Chang Author, Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the WorldAgenda SetterHow Congress Can Better Tackle What Threatens the United States
Congressman Will Hurd (R-TX)Strategic ViewWhy the Fundamentals of Deterrence Apply to Cyberspace
James Van de Velde National Intelligence University
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The Cipher Brief is hiring.
We interview the best and brightest minds including those who have led Intelligence Agencies or spent entire careers working undercover. We don’t have time for politics. After all, there’s a world that needs to be saved.Featured Job: National Security Correspondent
You’ll need solid news judgment, 2-5 journalism experience, copy editing experience, and a solid grasp of what makes a story a story. Find the good stuff. Leave the rest for everyone else. Find out more |
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HIGH PRICE ADVICE: Vanity Fair reported recently that tech billionaire Peter Thiel may be in line to be appointed chair of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board. One complication is that Thiel is chairman of Palantir Technologies, an important contractor for the intelligence community, and overseeing the IC, which is a heavy user of his company, may be an issue. But we suspect the White House can find a work-around.Catch up here. Got a tip? Email us at thedeaddrop@thecipherbrief.com and share the scoop. We promise to protect our sources and methods.
The Hill: Key Hearings This Week
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Tuesday, October 3
- House Armed Services Subcommittee Hearing: Securing the Peace After the Fall of ISIL
- USMC BGen James Bierman, Director of Middle East Division, Joint Staff J-5
- Ryan Crocker, Former Ambassador to Iraq; Diplomat in Residence, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University
- Marc Lynch, Professor of Political Science, George Washington University
- Joseph S. Pennington, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iraq, Department of State, Bureau of Near East Affairs
- Kenneth Pollack, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute
- Pamela Quanrud, Director, Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, Department of State
- Mark Swayne, Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Stability and Humanitarian Affairs
- House Homeland Security Subcommittee Hearing: Examining DHS’s Cybersecurity Mission
- Christopher Krebs, Senior Official Performing the Duties of the Under Secretary, National Protection and Programs Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
- Jeanette Manfra, Assistant Secretary for Cybersecurity and Communications, National Protection and Programs Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
- Patricia Hoffman, Acting Assistant Secretary, Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, U.S. Department of Energy
- Senate Armed Services Full Committee Hearing: Political and Security Situation in Afghanistan
- James Mattis, U.S. Secretary of Defense
- USMC General Joseph F. Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
- Senate Foreign Relations Nomination Hearing: U.S. Ambassador to India
Wednesday, October 4
- House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee Hearing: Iranian Backed Militias: Destabilizing the Middle East
- Michael Knights, Lafer Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Aram Nerguzian, Senior Associate, Burke Chair in Strategy, CSIS
- Kenneth Pollack, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute
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